Will "fight" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "fight" (11 distinct creators, rank #46). Last 15m momentum 0.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.8437996854094785,
      "diversity": -0.2714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23148134003207518
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fight",
    "rank60": 46,
    "share15": 0.00380517503805175,
    "share60": 0.008847736625514403,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 0.4300732717425932,
    "diversity": 0.5238095238095238,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918522222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23148134003207518
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004363001745200698,
  "shareRatio": 0.0743922352153673,
  "totalAfter": 2292,
  "shareBefore": 0.008592471358428805,
  "totalBefore": 2444,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity