Ledger / Prediction #3248 · narrative · 6H

Will "pincha" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "pincha" (5 distinct creators, rank #395). Last 15m momentum 1.68×.

Made2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.5195051574857135,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5679896401373743
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pincha",
    "rank60": 395,
    "share15": 0.00380517503805175,
    "share60": 0.0022633744855967077,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 1.6811955168119552,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998642037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5679896401373743
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.187

Log loss0.566

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017211703958691911,
  "shareRatio": 3.7946941534302128,
  "totalAfter": 14525,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004205921938088829,
  "totalBefore": 11888,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "pincha" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.17% (+309%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pincha" (6H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6d1e02578f2740694ff452dffa4fbab57c3e8f46220c59957f6e1b6e8be6aee4

Previous hashc54ae56fe34e8627922e0b4da6e05c54577a0fd845df01b1941f95249a16bf09