Will "internet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
49 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "internet" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34235735785147897,
"momentum": -1.089932754948387,
"diversity": 0.10408163265306127
},
"rawProbability": 0.3493842546687494
},
"features": {
"term": "internet",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.00684931506849315,
"share60": 0.020370370370370372,
"total15": 656,
"total60": 2429,
"momentum": 0.336239103362391,
"diversity": 0.8367346938775511,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 49,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 369,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996605092592593
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3493842546687494
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0062402131488536235,
"shareRatio": 1.0603980756259894,
"totalAfter": 42787,
"shareBefore": 0.005884483070794858,
"totalBefore": 44184,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 267,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 260
}Predicted 35% that "internet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 0.62% (+6%). PARTIAL.
— "internet" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
1a5c1728ba4f435222ab1bc1bda94e683427436559ec89fdca433699d873f2ab6d1e02578f2740694ff452dffa4fbab57c3e8f46220c59957f6e1b6e8be6aee4