Will "scat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "scat" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.44×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": 1.2347591138266887,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.611962343685689
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "scat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.06012176560121765,
    "share60": 0.01748971193415638,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 3.4375503626107977,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 39,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996605092592593
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.611962343685689
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004674316965433426,
  "shareRatio": 0.3090410436379939,
  "totalAfter": 42787,
  "shareBefore": 0.001539018649284809,
  "totalBefore": 44184,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity