Will "magic" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "magic" (31 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.44×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -0.8123010183501074,
      "diversity": 0.1054054054054054
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37675682791672055
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "magic",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.00684931506849315,
    "share60": 0.015432098765432098,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 0.4438356164383562,
    "diversity": 0.8378378378378378,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996605092592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37675682791672055
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0028980765185687243,
  "shareRatio": 1.000504614370588,
  "totalAfter": 42787,
  "shareBefore": 0.002896976281006699,
  "totalBefore": 44184,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 124,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 128
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity