Ledger / Prediction #3254 · token · 6H

Will $NZIHouse still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9diUHoGqoMNgMF8eS7gSaJmPiNbC1uFJL5sCWn15pump",
    "name": "NZIHouse",
    "symbol": "NZIHouse",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6646.6778798337455,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 791,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T16:53:11.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3010.977369143651,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7593.374784806053,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6646.6778798337455,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 13293.355759667491
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $NZIHouse would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,011, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $NZIHouse (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashee5c689b0a393a24f4af2da08684cdd881e61bc6a6bf73eb2a9f42a4429b90a0

Previous hash99cb80eeb796eeb8e2d73386fcad1cf3fb4b1866e28ac9956407d03d58f3bfd7