Will "wizard" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2327 launches in the last hour referenced "wizard" (29 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -0.7270956638058265,
      "diversity": 0.015789473684210575
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3767086529239796
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wizard",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.007992895204262877,
    "share60": 0.016537800687285224,
    "total15": 562,
    "total60": 2327,
    "momentum": 0.4833106502733501,
    "diversity": 0.7631578947368421,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850347222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3767086529239796
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029869554056892165,
  "shareRatio": 1.2262827491070276,
  "totalAfter": 42853,
  "shareBefore": 0.002433920203812383,
  "totalBefore": 43962,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 128,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 107
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity