Ledger / Prediction #3273 · narrative · 1H
Will "spaces" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
116 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "spaces" (4 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.
Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.47162284180083963,
"momentum": -1.4301778385160733,
"diversity": -0.8586206896551725
},
"rawProbability": 0.10743860947772894
},
"features": {
"term": "spaces",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.012172284644194757,
"share60": 0.05087336244541485,
"total15": 533,
"total60": 2289,
"momentum": 0.23926636768417162,
"diversity": 0.034482758620689655,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 116,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 270,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963302777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.10743860947772894
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.012
Log loss0.114
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.004457065994899546,
"totalAfter": 2207,
"shareBefore": 0.0506108202443281,
"totalBefore": 2292,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 116
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 11% that "spaces" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.06% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "spaces" (1H). momentum contributed -1.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1f7180cbd906a0361bbc185ee925ba8026d23cb2d971bab4ebc77b0bf4ec24a4Previous hash
292187f6d5cd1ca30111479acb6d778267090406b21ea1f4c84fa2d0d3c46dbe