GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3276 · narrative · 1H

Will "dreams" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "dreams" (4 distinct creators, rank #296). Last 15m momentum 1.95×.

Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.6674538972238203,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6052655189912584
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dreams",
    "rank60": 296,
    "share15": 0.0046816479400749065,
    "share60": 0.00240174672489083,
    "total15": 533,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 1.9492679605039156,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 270,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963302777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6052655189912584
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.366
Log loss0.930
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.001359311282283643,
  "shareRatio": 0.6608613306982872,
  "totalAfter": 2207,
  "shareBefore": 0.002181500872600349,
  "totalBefore": 2292,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "dreams" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.22% → 0.14% (-38%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "dreams" (1H). momentum contributed +0.67 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8177ea8d9ef7a60ca8d778f16c0a96eb1261e34c3b4fcc583ae0ef6ad1b974a5
Previous hashdd0381c4e01e299f3d06694d646f29c0e61abfa7fe500def42f62fdb7b9d38ea