Ledger / Prediction #3278 · narrative · 6H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (48 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.59×.

Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": 0.4618717728395578,
      "diversity": 0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5742832216321269
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04400749063670412,
    "share60": 0.027729257641921398,
    "total15": 533,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 1.5870417883157864,
    "diversity": 0.7619047619047619,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 48
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 270,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993883796296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5742832216321269
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.181

Log loss0.555

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.025959367945823927,
  "shareRatio": 1.5304230641405352,
  "totalAfter": 14176,
  "shareBefore": 0.016946517412935323,
  "totalBefore": 12864,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 368,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 218
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "dog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.69% → 2.60% (+53%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (6H). momentum contributed +0.46 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaba525addb33e9504cc33c7fff78b6f43800b151900c3f7f6b3cd0b39c19f953

Previous hash36c0c58ed68ddc484bfcc619bc5ec596f8f37306257b844b035cec2e5fcebe7e