Will "wizardcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "wizardcat" (29 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.6886695862627069,
      "diversity": -0.26727272727272733
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.354771863061391
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wizardcat",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.012172284644194757,
    "share60": 0.02423580786026201,
    "total15": 533,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 0.5022438168505584,
    "diversity": 0.5272727272727272,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 270,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998470949074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.354771863061391
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002581311306143521,
  "shareRatio": 0.21385398069664174,
  "totalAfter": 42614,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012505400059116436,
  "totalBefore": 43981,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity