Ledger / Prediction #3286 · token · 6H

Will $$MEOW still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "cat".

Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07984616815180759
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HFk3fF5puEmiJMykFZAvC5cDUt6TEEVonF5mxYJ9pump",
    "name": "MEOWGIC",
    "symbol": "$MEOW",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 189,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3003.525867715917,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 844,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07984616815180759
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.083

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T17:47:07.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2999.9663550590776,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3008.919824634255,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3003.525867715917,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6007.051735431834
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that $$MEOW would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,000, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $$MEOW (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash76a246f8dba68962b3903a1cc503147babb977b5eb4bafa8be66c7cba9d3f57f

Previous hashfeb60f4a827308a9a05929efb90f700c13f7ee953432cb063bbce47db9ce4c00