Ledger / Prediction #3290 · narrative · 1H

Will "loulou" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

114 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "loulou" (56 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

Made2026-10-13 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46901408039405923,
      "momentum": -1.0916099847002496,
      "diversity": -0.3105263157894737
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22563543141613243
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "loulou",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.016725352112676055,
    "share60": 0.04982593559617058,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.3356756258072452,
    "diversity": 0.49122807017543857,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 114,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 56
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935330555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22563543141613243
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.051

Log loss0.256

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002270663033605813,
  "shareRatio": 0.05054243221331769,
  "totalAfter": 2202,
  "shareBefore": 0.04920155373327579,
  "totalBefore": 2317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "loulou" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.92% → 0.23% (-95%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "loulou" (1H). momentum contributed -1.09 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe30fe72da3d333bb14e56bff4e1459a3693ae3f6300a674ed60982c3e40aaad2

Previous hashb15420947953f756aa66833eae3f1f5aab129710f6188c86c5e664f3098abce2