Will "cdm" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "cdm" (34 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -3.3981175059091915,
      "diversity": -0.22
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cdm",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0008802816901408451,
    "share60": 0.026327241079199305,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.03343615411477127,
    "diversity": 0.5666666666666667,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935330555555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.00855448409227624,
  "totalAfter": 2202,
  "shareBefore": 0.026327147173068624,
  "totalBefore": 2317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity