Will "loulou" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

114 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "loulou" (56 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46901408039405923,
      "momentum": -1.0916099847002496,
      "diversity": -0.3105263157894737
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.278244632795427
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "loulou",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.016725352112676055,
    "share60": 0.04982593559617058,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.3356756258072452,
    "diversity": 0.49122807017543857,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 114,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 56
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989221759259259
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.278244632795427
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003586543289577505,
  "shareRatio": 0.04472952572220971,
  "totalAfter": 13941,
  "shareBefore": 0.008781977854142803,
  "totalBefore": 13095,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity