Will "wallet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "wallet" (18 distinct creators, rank #50). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -0.6038069605225743,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4065691141066215
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wallet",
    "rank60": 50,
    "share15": 0.0044014084507042256,
    "share60": 0.00805047867711053,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.5467263037685574,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989221759259259
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4065691141066215
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008320780431819812,
  "shareRatio": 1.552209711764341,
  "totalAfter": 13941,
  "shareBefore": 0.005345551737304314,
  "totalBefore": 13095,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 116,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity