Ledger / Prediction #3304 · token · 6H

Will $LouLou still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "odyssean".

Made2026-10-13 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Bnp6JMPYqdBDS6brTiovL1B6hYhRxd1kdDkXsHXhpump",
    "name": "The Odyssean Dog",
    "symbol": "LouLou",
    "hotTerms": [
      "odyssean",
      "dog",
      "loulou"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2994.502530336959,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 711,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 2994.502530336959,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2994.502530336959,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5989.005060673918
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $LouLou would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,995, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $LouLou (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd5613d8660ea55de9b482531f98e893687df6a260663839fde4c65500405cb6a

Previous hash24d94b64ec8adb8570e7f300cfe493f0bba318f06859407860ae43caa3f8e9e6