Ledger / Prediction #3305 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

111 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (72 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.83×.

Made2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46501384333173507,
      "momentum": -0.1922360138511332,
      "diversity": -0.12162162162162157
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4628575991891295
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.041666666666666664,
    "share60": 0.050498188405797104,
    "total15": 539,
    "total60": 2207,
    "momentum": 0.8251121076233183,
    "diversity": 0.6486486486486487,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 111,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 72
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990925
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4628575991891295
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.214

Log loss0.622

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018410041841004185,
  "shareRatio": 0.36855697655445585,
  "totalAfter": 2390,
  "shareBefore": 0.05029451744449479,
  "totalBefore": 2207,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 44,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 111
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.03% → 1.84% (-63%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -0.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd6d06707d4044c45b0d66a4de64911f5aaac5c68cc576c9d261a3d41125b1dc9

Previous hashd5613d8660ea55de9b482531f98e893687df6a260663839fde4c65500405cb6a