Ledger / Prediction #3307 · narrative · 1H

Will "ryz101" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "ryz101" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 4.09×.

Made2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 1.4082732678386658,
      "diversity": -0.324
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7557763382872015
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ryz101",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.09351851851851851,
    "share60": 0.022871376811594204,
    "total15": 539,
    "total60": 2207,
    "momentum": 4.088888888888889,
    "diversity": 0.48,
    "launches15": 50,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990925
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7557763382872015
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.571

Log loss1.410

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008368200836820083,
  "shareRatio": 0.045715989415754624,
  "totalAfter": 2390,
  "shareBefore": 0.022655188038060717,
  "totalBefore": 2207,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "ryz101" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.27% → 0.08% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "ryz101" (1H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "ryz101". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7b4ef3f5c98463198009bca27c49aa2cef97d76a76a5c30eef18d243432a73b1

Previous hash3c77f2e9f06dae2bce9a002f189ab823274a5cc674bdbdaca694175803d617ab