Ledger / Prediction #3308 · narrative · 1H
Will "economy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "economy" (5 distinct creators, rank #166). Last 15m momentum 1.91×.
Made2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.6461332157917691,
"diversity": -0.04285714285714284
},
"rawProbability": 0.5875258985943205
},
"features": {
"term": "economy",
"rank60": 166,
"share15": 0.006481481481481481,
"share60": 0.0033967391304347825,
"total15": 539,
"total60": 2207,
"momentum": 1.9081481481481481,
"diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 274,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990925
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5875258985943205
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.345
Log loss0.886
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0008368200836820083,
"shareRatio": 0.3078209953994145,
"totalAfter": 2390,
"shareBefore": 0.0031717263253285004,
"totalBefore": 2207,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 2,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "economy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.08% (-74%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "economy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.65 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a12552e0aa262d106584e53b65a9bcd06fd7fc64aff7badaff7d3530952fe8c3Previous hash
7b4ef3f5c98463198009bca27c49aa2cef97d76a76a5c30eef18d243432a73b1