Ledger / Prediction #331 · narrative · 6H

Will "trench" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

54 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "trench" (31 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35693192011952607,
      "momentum": -0.9731876381554596,
      "diversity": -0.2111111111111111
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.293352545192173
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trench",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.007681564245810056,
    "share60": 0.020328235732935473,
    "total15": 715,
    "total60": 2680,
    "momentum": 0.37787658244067446,
    "diversity": 0.5740740740740741,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 54,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.997965,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996608333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.293352545192173
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.086

Log loss0.347

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003664269911504425,
  "shareRatio": 0.7342532911309471,
  "totalAfter": 14464,
  "shareBefore": 0.005004609508758067,
  "totalBefore": 15186,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "trench" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.37% (-27%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "trench" (6H). momentum contributed -0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb58de9e535980a03beeb76162a41aada70b645849555fab30a29810c002500cb

Previous hash697ce77b6e870c57beb3c8566d0d87d18c29028c6e746b00d3ef291d8fdcf27f