Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
42 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (21 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.26×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3192347558773902,
"momentum": 0.815769613058408,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5706498611717503
},
"features": {
"term": "justice",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.04351851851851852,
"share60": 0.0192481884057971,
"total15": 539,
"total60": 2207,
"momentum": 2.2609150326797387,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 23,
"launches60": 42,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 274,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.99984875
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5706498611717503
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.010247401551749379,
"shareRatio": 1.2880611390414258,
"totalAfter": 13662,
"shareBefore": 0.007946622685358723,
"totalBefore": 13339,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 140,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 106
}Predicted 57% that "justice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.79% → 1.02% (+29%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "justice" (6H). momentum contributed +0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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