Will "ryz101" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "ryz101" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 4.09×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 1.4082732678386658,
      "diversity": -0.324
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6022455783794053
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ryz101",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.09351851851851851,
    "share60": 0.022871376811594204,
    "total15": 539,
    "total60": 2207,
    "momentum": 4.088888888888889,
    "diversity": 0.48,
    "launches15": 50,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999621875
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6022455783794053
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010095318589472696,
  "shareRatio": 0.8778676435550586,
  "totalAfter": 42594,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011518348729526134,
  "totalBefore": 43409,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 43,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity