Will "zerocash" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "zerocash" (17 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -2.882186173309725,
      "diversity": -0.3333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14682745612729312
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "zerocash",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.000925925925925926,
    "share60": 0.016530797101449276,
    "total15": 539,
    "total60": 2207,
    "momentum": 0.056012176560121765,
    "diversity": 0.4722222222222222,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999621875
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14682745612729312
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000023477485091796968,
  "shareRatio": 0.04188220689610814,
  "totalAfter": 42594,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008293211085258817,
  "totalBefore": 43409,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity