Will "meet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
10 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "meet" (9 distinct creators, rank #107). Last 15m momentum 2.92×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.1039720770839918,
"momentum": 1.0718010312174528,
"diversity": 0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.5933632645336617
},
"features": {
"term": "meet",
"rank60": 107,
"share15": 0.013888888888888888,
"share60": 0.004755434782608696,
"total15": 539,
"total60": 2207,
"momentum": 2.9206349206349205,
"diversity": 0.9,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 10,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 274,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999621875
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5933632645336617
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0037329201295957177,
"shareRatio": 1.0003189251176103,
"totalAfter": 42594,
"shareBefore": 0.0037319449883664677,
"totalBefore": 43409,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 159,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 162
}Predicted 59% that "meet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.37% (+0%). PARTIAL.
— "meet" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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