Ledger / Prediction #332 · narrative · 6H
Will "head" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "head" (4 distinct creators, rank #398). Last 15m momentum 1.70×.
Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.5318076109110436,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5285352909233143
},
"features": {
"term": "head",
"rank60": 398,
"share15": 0.0034916201117318434,
"share60": 0.002051473330846699,
"total15": 715,
"total60": 2680,
"momentum": 1.702006094464195,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 439,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.997965,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996608333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5285352909233143
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.279
Log loss0.752
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.001797566371681416,
"shareRatio": 0.9762354382326366,
"totalAfter": 14464,
"shareBefore": 0.001843803503226656,
"totalBefore": 15186,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "head" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.18% → 0.18% (-3%). PARTIAL.
— "head" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fb4c3e713dfe95afa98b1b8dff61bfb51e208daaa6ececf04aada65207a8c24cPrevious hash
b58de9e535980a03beeb76162a41aada70b645849555fab30a29810c002500cb