Ledger / Prediction #3321 · narrative · 1H
Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
69 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (29 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.
Made2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3937002888244739,
"momentum": -1.6203204546010563,
"diversity": -0.39565217391304347
},
"rawProbability": 0.12760838513994138
},
"features": {
"term": "justice",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.006261180679785331,
"share60": 0.03164845173041894,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2195,
"momentum": 0.1978352916950876,
"diversity": 0.42028985507246375,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 69,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 29
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 332,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966088888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.12760838513994138
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.016
Log loss0.137
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005118110236220472,
"shareRatio": 0.1684064790670415,
"totalAfter": 2540,
"shareBefore": 0.031335149863760216,
"totalBefore": 2202,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 13,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 69
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 13% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.13% → 0.51% (-84%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "justice" (1H). momentum contributed -1.62 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e04d65cfd4064c564fdbb3e4413a163b2792da168ef58547c61976bd403340f3Previous hash
6edd786cdb712622b185cbb49f31c8b60c15e3fb45510528c368f543cf344105