Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (46 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.53×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -0.641518291567524,
      "diversity": 0.25000000000000006
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4166410385948615
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.011627906976744186,
    "share60": 0.0220856102003643,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2195,
    "momentum": 0.5264924478542315,
    "diversity": 0.9583333333333334,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 46
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994348148148148
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4166410385948615
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009265486064410073,
  "shareRatio": 0.8607207559726647,
  "totalAfter": 13383,
  "shareBefore": 0.010771059277967612,
  "totalBefore": 13462,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 124,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 145
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity