Ledger / Prediction #333 · token · 1H

Will $test still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. X link. Rides hot term "test". Creator launched 8 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "BwvF3EmpK75evK4NnPXQ6oY88BP5xvsXnAgXUtQ3pump",
    "name": "test",
    "symbol": "test",
    "hotTerms": [
      "test"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1835.6471687193277,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 8
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 885,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T20:15:00.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1569.9192393450678,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 1913.625911744211,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1835.6471687193277,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $test would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,570, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $test (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf9b5574e5e858bc6dff33d8b5c069454abb5408a55164308b7a370358bfcd0d1

Previous hashfb4c3e713dfe95afa98b1b8dff61bfb51e208daaa6ececf04aada65207a8c24c