Will "layer" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "layer" (10 distinct creators, rank #108). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -0.5776668195809914,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4044764617030282
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "layer",
    "rank60": 108,
    "share15": 0.0026833631484794273,
    "share60": 0.0047814207650273225,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2195,
    "momentum": 0.5612062356248402,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998587037037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4044764617030282
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001931092951510727,
  "shareRatio": 1.2989498081001034,
  "totalAfter": 42463,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014841268000834822,
  "totalBefore": 43123,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 82,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity