Ledger / Prediction #3336 · token · 6H

Will $BUYTECH still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link, Telegram. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DvhWJqp1HqskoTLqVTV1AChGLBPE9yZhxPDnmK1Wiyq",
    "name": "Buytech",
    "symbol": "BUYTECH",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3505.6292097046776,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 738,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T01:28:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 6532.435095254437,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 13619.290159720249,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3505.6292097046776,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7011.258419409355
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $BUYTECH would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $6,532, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BUYTECH (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf626eb7041d3d401ebc572ebbaa1119ed3f1dbdec79935789a5fe1d1aee4c84d

Previous hash242bd2d975d170581f897284b625731fc431951ca36a631410c35c553bb4a7ea