Ledger / Prediction #3341 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

128 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (69 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4863888527228275,
      "momentum": -0.5985447148686696,
      "diversity": -0.253125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36454376613369877
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02976190476190476,
    "share60": 0.05415086388537716,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.5496108949416342,
    "diversity": 0.5390625,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 128,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 69
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998923287037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36454376613369877
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.133

Log loss0.453

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04113584036838066,
  "shareRatio": 0.710129868309893,
  "totalAfter": 13030,
  "shareBefore": 0.057944738559721515,
  "totalBefore": 13789,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 536,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 799
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 5.79% → 4.11% (-29%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (6H). momentum contributed -0.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash61e66aef034793f969d220b80837c33f96a1389814c91b13a70521d6eb688c57

Previous hashd2f9bd7cd76ce36525a6f306919b3e6c69a377ac19ac3aa961d2b7f82d8afec4