Ledger / Prediction #3342 · narrative · 6H

Will "space" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "space" (31 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -3.2199372083041227,
      "diversity": -0.156
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08155648103292062
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "space",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0008503401360544217,
    "share60": 0.021281078803202697,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.039957567185289956,
    "diversity": 0.62,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998923287037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08155648103292062
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.007

Log loss0.085

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014581734458940906,
  "shareRatio": 0.1884547175702198,
  "totalAfter": 13030,
  "shareBefore": 0.00790485169337878,
  "totalBefore": 13789,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 109
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "space" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.79% → 0.15% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "space" (6H). momentum contributed -3.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb109fa4b5c1e83e4aa6a6bdfcd64105f4db59d00ee1db4c211213c691879c0aa

Previous hash61e66aef034793f969d220b80837c33f96a1389814c91b13a70521d6eb688c57