Ledger / Prediction #3343 · narrative · 6H

Will "kirk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "kirk" (26 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.5763692711315145,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3640623226833816
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "kirk",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.00935374149659864,
    "share60": 0.016645596291613992,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.5619349005424954,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998923287037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3640623226833816
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.133

Log loss0.453

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013814274750575594,
  "shareRatio": 0.47174809282406277,
  "totalAfter": 13030,
  "shareBefore": 0.002973384581913119,
  "totalBefore": 13789,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "kirk" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.14% (-54%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "kirk" (6H). momentum contributed -0.58 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash308bdad361acdc88c6680b03b973d9297b8eb8b0ea6bf1bce308dd51e294fe93

Previous hashb109fa4b5c1e83e4aa6a6bdfcd64105f4db59d00ee1db4c211213c691879c0aa