Ledger / Prediction #3344 · narrative · 6H

Will "ave" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "ave" (3 distinct creators, rank #21). Last 15m momentum 1.29×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.2530859079292881,
      "diversity": -0.7434782608695651
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3815348293691666
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ave",
    "rank60": 21,
    "share15": 0.012755102040816327,
    "share60": 0.00990307627475769,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 1.2879939209726443,
    "diversity": 0.13043478260869565,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998923287037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3815348293691666
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.146

Log loss0.480

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007674597083653108,
  "shareRatio": 0.20388220327109877,
  "totalAfter": 13030,
  "shareBefore": 0.003916165059105084,
  "totalBefore": 13789,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "ave" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.08% (-80%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "ave" (6H). diversity contributed -0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash07cd3526c4e77152611a7b18918b588bb077c954bcdbe51dae44213e12e5b7f5

Previous hash308bdad361acdc88c6680b03b973d9297b8eb8b0ea6bf1bce308dd51e294fe93