Will "kirk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "kirk" (26 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.5763692711315145,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3812784569358341
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "kirk",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.00935374149659864,
    "share60": 0.016645596291613992,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.5619349005424954,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997308217592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3812784569358341
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021252981320990863,
  "shareRatio": 1.8162427393206872,
  "totalAfter": 42347,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011650123491309008,
  "totalBefore": 42918,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 90,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity