Will "otto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "otto" (23 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -2.9223048049991736,
      "diversity": -0.15405405405405406
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15603002936259217
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "otto",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0008503401360544217,
    "share60": 0.01580278128950695,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.053809523809523814,
    "diversity": 0.6216216216216216,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997308217592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15603002936259217
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000023614423689989846,
  "shareRatio": 0.040539340700859544,
  "totalAfter": 42347,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008621091383568666,
  "totalBefore": 42918,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity