Will "abdulrahman" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "abdulrahman" (18 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.04×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": 1.3951833085371366,
"diversity": -0.2828571428571429
},
"rawProbability": 0.5991936265348897
},
"features": {
"term": "abdulrahman",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.06037414965986394,
"share60": 0.014959966287399916,
"total15": 587,
"total60": 2372,
"momentum": 4.035714285714286,
"diversity": 0.5142857142857142,
"launches15": 35,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 332,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997308217592593
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5991936265348897
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012987933029494415,
"shareRatio": 1.5844601471110598,
"totalAfter": 42347,
"shareBefore": 0.0008155086443916306,
"totalBefore": 42918,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 55,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 35
}Predicted 60% that "abdulrahman" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.13% (+59%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "abdulrahman" (24H). momentum contributed +1.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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