Ledger / Prediction #3353 · narrative · 1H

Will "nasbot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

148 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "nasbot" (65 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

Made2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5081661541995022,
      "momentum": -1.0895367867852424,
      "diversity": -0.37297297297297294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22194914564820833
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nasbot",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.019658119658119658,
    "share60": 0.05844155844155844,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2540,
    "momentum": 0.336372269705603,
    "diversity": 0.4391891891891892,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 148,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 65
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990919444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22194914564820833
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.049

Log loss0.251

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022197558268590455,
  "shareRatio": 0.04113247863247864,
  "totalAfter": 2703,
  "shareBefore": 0.05826771653543307,
  "totalBefore": 2540,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 148
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "nasbot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.83% → 0.22% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nasbot" (1H). momentum contributed -1.09 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash20f1ae14ed3089495c61fa8bdb3d5656a5f993125d83cb5f1913b51977bf0946

Previous hashf5dd6e3cb88a0ab669c4d89cadc61710941b5dd875759bc1cac67009e98f5b73