Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (7 distinct creators, rank #215). Last 15m momentum 3.19×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 1.1585462077844682,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7701249799718543
},
"features": {
"term": "mascot",
"rank60": 215,
"share15": 0.009401709401709401,
"share60": 0.0029515938606847697,
"total15": 584,
"total60": 2540,
"momentum": 3.1852991452991453,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 319,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990919444444445
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7701249799718543
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.002589715131335553,
"shareRatio": 0.9397189349112426,
"totalAfter": 2703,
"shareBefore": 0.0027559055118110236,
"totalBefore": 2540,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 7,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Predicted 77% that "mascot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.26% (-6%). PARTIAL.
— "mascot" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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