GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3364 · narrative · 24H

Will "rules" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "rules" (6 distinct creators, rank #283). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

Made2026-10-13 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.0962482213732292,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33526883484335024
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rules",
    "rank60": 283,
    "share15": 0.0008547008547008547,
    "share60": 0.0025580480125934673,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2540,
    "momentum": 0.3341222879684418,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999621643518518
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33526883484335024
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.442
Log loss1.093
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021784944708863156,
  "shareRatio": 1.775421932364535,
  "totalAfter": 42231,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012219480672071438,
  "totalBefore": 42555,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 52
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "rules" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.22% (+78%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "rules" (24H). momentum contributed -1.10 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6a4a41cc6a70af8102e253deed2544b421e7aac1961223caee54f2a390d961fb
Previous hash43a53de2f9a849e1de6d03bf300ba699cb638efc2dc757790a1c8911e6756b90