Will "marvin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

163 of 2626 launches in the last hour referenced "marvin" (31 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 3.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5226468432558993,
      "momentum": 1.2174712740967,
      "diversity": -0.6717791411042945
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.683161471461896
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "marvin",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.2102803738317757,
    "share60": 0.06223829463266083,
    "total15": 748,
    "total60": 2626,
    "momentum": 3.3786332847466345,
    "diversity": 0.1901840490797546,
    "launches15": 157,
    "launches60": 163,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 267,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960316666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960316666666666
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.683161471461896
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003299241174529858,
  "shareRatio": 0.007973058023286777,
  "totalAfter": 3031,
  "shareBefore": 0.061883067577828396,
  "totalBefore": 2634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 163
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity