Ledger / Prediction #3371 · narrative · 1H
Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
88 of 2626 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (35 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.75×.
Made2026-10-13 21:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43018483530661594,
"momentum": 1.0131830067251828,
"diversity": -0.42272727272727273
},
"rawProbability": 0.6727480591964066
},
"features": {
"term": "dog",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.09279038718291055,
"share60": 0.03368861819566045,
"total15": 748,
"total60": 2626,
"momentum": 2.754354204853175,
"diversity": 0.3977272727272727,
"launches15": 69,
"launches60": 88,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 35
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 267,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9960316666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960316666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6727480591964066
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.453
Log loss1.117
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.011217419993401518,
"shareRatio": 0.3387873977013551,
"totalAfter": 3031,
"shareBefore": 0.033409263477600606,
"totalBefore": 2634,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 88
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 67% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 1.12% (-66%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed +1.01 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
14af4e3d917998bba714d6b852d8a385681f41f0bfe9a14119bdbe26e5a72014Previous hash
38d99acae0d1ed33822d7d84504377616b32ae7075e2eefdbfe1d42ba0bec0da