Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

189 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (24 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5448463653938312,
      "momentum": -0.2624216252957972,
      "diversity": -0.7476190476190476
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3175195896993747
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05434782608695652,
    "share60": 0.07065622669649516,
    "total15": 689,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.7691866467821498,
    "diversity": 0.12698412698412698,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 189,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 285,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929736111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929736111111112
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3175195896993747
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01269130272489735,
  "shareRatio": 0.18368841806797148,
  "totalAfter": 2679,
  "shareBefore": 0.06992230854605994,
  "totalBefore": 2703,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 189
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity