Ledger / Prediction #3387 · narrative · 1H

Will "humans" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "humans" (32 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-13 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -3.6191072761702556,
      "diversity": -0.3666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "humans",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0007246376811594203,
    "share60": 0.02703206562266965,
    "total15": 689,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.026806596701649175,
    "diversity": 0.4444444444444444,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 285,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929736111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929736111111112
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011198208286674132,
  "shareRatio": 0.048708183221821924,
  "totalAfter": 2679,
  "shareBefore": 0.026637069922308545,
  "totalBefore": 2703,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "humans" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.66% → 0.11% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "humans" (1H). momentum contributed -3.62 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash998cb9b7d330418c88527972cd5e35e1373a5481fde09920ded75c90aae22d13

Previous hashb4e7af913ca6265823204f74e8ddda34049c727328409dee5b29fdeba154f205