GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3394 · narrative · 24H

Will "charity" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "charity" (29 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-13 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -1.8120591144271103,
      "diversity": -0.31016949152542367
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23577093682766626
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "charity",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0036231884057971015,
    "share60": 0.022184936614466817,
    "total15": 689,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.16331750091340883,
    "diversity": 0.4915254237288136,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 285,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929736111111112,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997072337962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23577093682766626
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 21:39 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.056
Log loss0.269
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029098429646730634,
  "shareRatio": 0.9743676866668175,
  "totalAfter": 41583,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029869702243755587,
  "totalBefore": 42518,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 121,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 127
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "charity" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.29% (-3%). PARTIAL.

— "charity" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashed6a49b8682f63da296fd05cf66d947619b42c97e5a67e35651723d12cb7022c
Previous hash43048437a312301e9431e6cc7d25cd37cd0e7802ef20f732aa5541a0b28252b3