Ledger / Prediction #3397 · token · 1H

Will $gascoin still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "F5PNsceWuqRGfqtSdoHf7tRp1qiV5WVnUKFifGQ7pump",
    "name": "gascoin",
    "symbol": "gascoin",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3891.3563524023607,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 869,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T21:08:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3050.805645279324,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4812.596663984108,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3891.3563524023607,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7782.712704804721
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $gascoin would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,051, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $gascoin (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash23eeb6ecfd9f000b93607bb4570615ece825ca1f0474e105c4937402e7cda4d6

Previous hash35cc06311444b68e39d5a73a02793c3683148f675947d0b00283f0ea6e48db4b