Will "act" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

99 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "act" (50 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4478522906550734,
      "momentum": -1.006688374855269,
      "diversity": -0.2939393939393939
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2896791507178382
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "act",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.012,
    "share60": 0.03283828382838284,
    "total15": 624,
    "total60": 3029,
    "momentum": 0.36542713567839197,
    "diversity": 0.5050505050505051,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 99,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999400462962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2896791507178382
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00150093808630394,
  "shareRatio": 0.22872372622832726,
  "totalAfter": 10660,
  "shareBefore": 0.0067337822521501434,
  "totalBefore": 14999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 101
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity