GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3408 · narrative · 6H

Will "views" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "views" (5 distinct creators, rank #374). Last 15m momentum 2.20×.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.7901088884027432,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6137436872816526
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "views",
    "rank60": 374,
    "share15": 0.004,
    "share60": 0.0018151815181518152,
    "total15": 624,
    "total60": 3029,
    "momentum": 2.2036363636363636,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999400462962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6137436872816526
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.377
Log loss0.951
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012195121951219512,
  "shareRatio": 0.8441984804427352,
  "totalAfter": 10660,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014667644509633977,
  "totalBefore": 14999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 22
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "views" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.12% (-17%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "views" (6H). momentum contributed +0.79 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash63a1a901896dc83589fa3fa672b46603c9394ce19ed00fd9fecd26e953285f4f
Previous hashd854f5ed4f68fc11afa468e3cea0959ffdc030591bc17a8f6584f3f40ab0cf63