Ledger / Prediction #3409 · narrative · 24H

Will "era" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

108 of 3029 launches in the last hour referenced "era" (57 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

Made2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4609039972035179,
      "momentum": -1.2363817473119094,
      "diversity": -0.26666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3055361072236545
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "era",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0104,
    "share60": 0.03580858085808581,
    "total15": 624,
    "total60": 3029,
    "momentum": 0.2904331797235023,
    "diversity": 0.5277777777777778,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 108,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 340,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996402777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999985011574074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3055361072236545
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 22:05 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.093

Log loss0.365

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002044442281013459,
  "shareRatio": 0.6165098518892398,
  "totalAfter": 41087,
  "shareBefore": 0.003324267150196434,
  "totalBefore": 43017,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 143
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "era" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.20% (-38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "era" (24H). momentum contributed -1.24 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2e7b5d4bbeb1dd584397603534473c93fa94c53150e947819aa9951dd1104305

Previous hash63a1a901896dc83589fa3fa672b46603c9394ce19ed00fd9fecd26e953285f4f